Product Description
Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast is a comprehensive introduction to all aspects of global warming. Written in an accessible style, this important book examines the processes of climate change and climate stability, from the distant past to the distant future.
Examining the greenhouse effect, the carbon cycle, and what the future may hold for global climate, this text draws on a wide range of disciplines, and summarizes not only scientific ev… More >>
Brief, lucid, comprehensive, and objective. Covers an amazing amount of material in a short space. Brevity, however, is occasionally a flaw. For many of the topics, I found myself wishing there was more detail. Although everything is fully explained, readers having some basic science knowledge will find this book easier to follow. There is one serious flaw, there is a large number of typographical errors (some figures are badly scrambled). and a few of the illustrations are badly flawed. Find the list errata in the author’s website.
Rating: 5 / 5
Based on a general undergrad course taught by author, this modest book is a very nice introduction to climate science and global warming. Following the arguments requires only a high school level knowledge of chemistry and algebra (knowledge that seems to be lacking in the Oklahoma Congressional delegation). Archer covers the basic features of the earth’s energy budget, relevant physics and geochemistry, simplified modeling, and evidence for anthropogenic warming. The exposition is excellent with good use of figures, simple equations, and a direct writing style. As befits a textbook-style book, each chapter concludes with some exercises, useful references, and links to useful data and models. Given Archer’s skill as a pedagogue, I would like to see some more discussion of economic models and mitigation strategies, which are really now the major issues.
Rating: 4 / 5
The climate books by Flannery, Kolbert, etc. tend to be anecdotal, with qualitative descriptions of how the climate works. While I think those books are valuable, what’s been missing is a more technical description of the physics of the climate system that’s accessible to people who aren’t physics majors. This book is it. It serves as a bridge between the fully qualitative books and highly technical textbooks requiring calculus. There is some math in it, so math-phobes might approach it with caution. I think the book would be especially useful to scientists or grad students who want to know something about the climate problem, but don’t want to invest a lot of time in reading dense textbooks or journal articles. I’m going to have my incoming grad students who did not major in atmospheric sciences read it in order to educate themselves quickly about the climate.
Rating: 5 / 5
You will need to visit understandingtheforecast.org right away, to download the errata. There are 32 errors listed in the errata, as of 17 December 2008. Four figures need to be replaced, though one is an update to reflect the 2007 IPCC report. Unfortunately, the replacement figures are not the same size as those in the book. You cannot merely paste them over; you will need to tape them as a flap, so that you can still read the caption. You will likely find more typos in the book than those listed in the errata. Depending on how valuable your time is, you may effectively double the price of the book.
In addition to the typos, there are some serious errors in the book. The author is a geochemist. The opening chapter on the greenhouse effect, “The layer model”, is incorrect for anything but epsilon=1 (epsilon being the emissivity). A term for radiation from the surface is missing entirely from the last equation on page 25. That term would have a factor of (1-epsilon). Fortunately, the solutions listed in Table 3.1 are for epsilon=1, but that is not stated explicitly in the text. Furthermore, there is confusion about the use of the same symbol, epsilon, for both the emissivity of the atmosphere and the surface. You can repair Chapter 3 (or ignore it) by referring to the Wikipedia for “Idealized greenhouse model”.
A minor error appears on 157, in regards to the storm surge associated with a hurricane. We read “These are caused by the low atmospheric pressure inside a hurricane lifting up the sea surface”. An elementary hydrostatic calculation reveals the a 100 millibar pressure deficit would lift the ocean surface by merely one meter. Storm surges associated with hurricanes are cause by the wind. See the Wikipedia for “Storm Surge”.
On page 89: “If we were to precipitate the CO2 into a snowfall of dry ice … 7cm of snow on the ground.” The correct answer is 4 mm. In Figure 9.2: the label should be Gton C/TW yr.
Some of the presentation of the greenhouse effect is outstanding. Chapter 4, and particularly the figures of the spectra at the top of the atmosphere, give a wonderful graphic presentation of radiative forcing and its logarithmic dependence on carbon dioxide concentration. The equilibrium warming that would result from the radiative forcing is again shown with recourse to a spectra. These spectra for the warmed atmosphere provide a excellent starting point for a discussion of the feedbacks (assuming the discussants understand the spectra), which make the forecast uncertain.
The book really shines in the presentation of the chemistry, the carbon cycle and energy policy.
With a little repair by the reader, the book is turned into a five star book.
Rating: 4 / 5
I honestly believe that after reading this book, anyone will be able to confidently discuss global warming topics from an objective viewpoint.
Dr. Archer wrote this book after teaching a course with the same title for several years. His writing style is as great as his lecture style – non-intimidating, humorous, well-explained examples and analogies, and he teaches the science behind the famous words “global warming”. There is no arm-waving or magical answer. The descriptive text encourages the reader to find answers themselves via simple calculations. In addition, several fun and relevant web-based models are included. For example, in one model, you can calculate how the earth’s temperature may change if you increase the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. In another, you can play with the supply of fossil fuels and predict how long it will be before we run out.
I’ve been a teaching assistant to Dr. Archer for two years, and his lectures, which this book is partially based on, have helped students with no previous background understand the science behind global warming, and enjoy themselves while doing it. But as a graduate student, I still find myself consulting his book for general facts about the carbon cycle or atmosphere. It truly is a book that can be enjoyed at any level of background, especially today, when global warming is such a hot (no pun intended) topic. I’ve read the book each year, and look forward to reading it again. Definitely a great buy!
Rating: 5 / 5